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As is election year tradition in Australia, the political pundits are in full swing at the moment guessing at the date John Howard will call the election. Accepted wisdom at the moment suggests that the poll date will be late November/early December, as late as possible without cutting into Christmas/new years.

Accepted wisdom also suggests that a belated election would suit the Howard government, giving them time to eat into Labour’s lead in the polls. However, it is also possible to argue the opposite, there are several ways in which a late election could suit the Rudd team in their quest to win government. Here are a few:

1. Increased Door knocking Time: A late election, during daylight savings and the lengthening days before Christmas provide more time to go from door to door between the end of the working day and sunset. This will give Labor candidates, always the keenest to door knock, a chance to get in touch with more voters in marginal seats.

2. Campaign Fatigue: The government is hoping that Labor supporters will get tired of campaigning and run out of money before the election is called. However the libs are not immune to fatigue issues, consdier the last two federal elections: on both occasions, the entire liberal campaign was based on falsifications which played on the minds of voters and were not dispelled until after the election. Both the Tampa/Children Overboard and the Labor Government/Interest Rates lies were maintained just long enough to scare voters into voting for the coalition despite their lies and failures. This time the government scare campaign will be Labor Party=Union Thugs, however, the scare is already on the table, can Howard really keep this inane misinformation going for the next four months? This government may finally learn, as Lincoln said, that you cant fool all the people all the time.

3. More time to stuff up: The legacy that this government will leave Australia with is one of failure, failure in defense, welfare, maintenance of political accountability, general incompetence in government management. Another four months gives them a lot of rope with which to hang themselves. What if another revelation of utter government dishonesty or incompetence were to surface over the next few months? Another AWB? John Howard could be forced either to sack incompetent/corrupt ministers or, as he has done in the past, keep them on and hope they will become invisible during the election. Either way, another revelation like the children overboard/AWB scandal could be the last straw for voters already, justifiably, doubting this governments credentials.

There is no doubt that this election will be a close one. It may yet be one of the closest in recent memory. But a late election may not be a decisive factor in the Howard government’s favour. It may be evidence more of Howard’s hubris than his strategic ability.

The AYL State conference was held last Sunday in North Hobart. Thanks to Ross Kev and Richard for getting it all together. Thanks to Julie Collins for coming along as well as all the guys who made it down from Lonnie. Thanks also to the ‘players for keeping those guys occupied on saturday night (you know who you are).

The following motions were passed on the day:

1. A condemnation of the damaging and deceptive Workchoices legislation which threatens the rights and job security of all workers, especially young people and working parents.

2. A motion in support of the scrapping of the Three Mines policy in favour of a responsible and consistent uranium policy.

3. An affirmation of our commitment to giving priority to the highest performing australian university students, in opposition to the Howard Government policy of allowing local fee-paying students with lower marks to jump the queue.

4. An endorsement of the responsible economic management of the Hawke/Keating government, condemning the deceitful strategies employed by the Howard Government in attacking Labor’s economic credentials. This motion also reaffirmed our support of a comprehensive welfare and education system aimed at helping the victims of poverty.

5. A motion in support of a Charter of Rights for Tasmania, which would aim to further protect Tasmanians against rights abuses and discrimination.

Thanks again to all who were involved. For those of you who couldn’t make it, hope to see you next year, lets hope well be able to send next year’s conference motions straight to Prime Minister Rudd!

Sorry about the terrible pun in the header, too late to change it now, my delete key is broken or something. The Mercury gave the AYL State Conference a short write up on page nine today, thought i would stick it up here:

Tassie keen on Rights Charter

Maria Rae

Tasmania’s Young Labor has called for a charter of Human Rights. Members of the group passed a motion at the state conference on Sunday. Australian Young Labor secretary Kevin Midson said a charter of rights would give Tasmanians a clear statement of their rights and allow them to be protected. The Tasmanian Law Reform Institute hopes to hand its final report into such a charter to the Attorney-General within a month.

Good to get some press, no matter how minor. Thanks to everyone who supported the motion, and thanks to Kev for letting us put words in his mouth. Next year well have a go at getting a few more motions we can put out there for public discussion.

Societies Day was a huge success, as ususal the TUU put on a great show, the turnout was great and everyone seems pretty happy with how it went. For those of you who couldn’t make it, youll be pleased to hear that Labor went very well. We had a huge influx of new members, more than last year and almost double our 2005 total, which sets us up well for the year. Thanks to everyone who took the time to sign up, we promise we will make it worth your while. And big thanks to Kieren, Michelle and Stuart, who did a great job running the stall, and to Lisa Singh and Kevin Harkins for taking the time to come down and meet the students. We still have to set down a date for our first general meeting, and we will be in touch with everyone as soon as we do. This is an important year, and its off to a great start, lets keep the momentum going.

Police are looking into a series of "incedents" (full report here) which seem to be aimed at intimidating Labor’s Bennelong candidate Maxine McKew. According to the article McKew has been the target of death threats and a possible attempted assault since she announced that she would be running against the Prime Minister in the newly marginal seat. In a further twist, former Bennelong candidate Andrew Wilkie (now a Tasmanian and Greens senate hopeful) has revealed that he was also the target of threats during his time in Bennelong. The question of who is responsible for these threats is too important to be ignored. Their recurrence certainly hints at an orchestrated campaign, and if the police investigation verifies the claims made in the report, then it would seem fair to conclude that McKew and Wilkie are the victims of nothing short of a conspiracy. This is a disturbing trend for Australian politics, we hope this isnt the kind of event which comes to define the 2007 election. Goodluck to Maxine McKew in her campaign to take the PM’s seat and leave Howard without the job security which his “workchoices” has denied so many of us.

Hey all, hope it has been a good summer, i guess it is time to get the ball rolling again in regards to uni labor and o’week. Societies day is on the 28th of Feb from 3 to 6, and we will be holding a stall from 3 to 5. Anyone who is keen to help out on the stall, give me a call (0400 544 569). Stuart has come up with some great stuff for new members and we have a few ideas for campaigns on IR, University Issues and Housing which we can discuss when we get back to regular meetings. Sorry about the ancient discussion topics, we will have some new ones up soon.

hope to see you all during o’week,

henry

Well, within the space of a few days, leadership jitters turned to full out warfare, and within the space of a few weeks, Federal Labor has a new face, a new team and a new direction. I will admit that i was apprehensive at first but having seen Rudd and his team in action, i am all the way behind them, i think they have made politics exicting again and i hope they can turn their current poll popularity into broader community support. I say, bring on the next six months, lets put our faith in this team, they seem hell bent on showing howard for the hypocrite and cheat that he is, and hopefully people will sit up and take notice.

Labor man and controversy machine Phillip Adams has raised at least a couple of eyebrows by coming out in today’s Australian in favour of leadership hopeful Kevin Rudd. In his column (linked here) Adams argues that Rudd is a genuine chance to take the next election from Howard, and blames Beazley for the PM’s ongoing popularity.

Whatever you think of Adams, you cant deny that his posturing is thought provoking, not to mention entertaining. He runs against the current accepted wisdom of internal Labor, not to mention general public, opinion, and he does it well. What do you think? Is Howard due for a humpty-dumpty moment? Is Rudd the man to deliver it? Or is “The Bomber” Beazley still the man?

AYL and UtasLabor are holding an open discussion group on the topic of a Human Rights Charter for Tasmania, on Thursday the 23rd of November at BarCelona. Our guest speaker will be Therese Henning of the Tasmanian Law Reform Institute. The Institute has recently released a discussion paper on this issue, and is currently calling for submissions.

The paper has been published online and can be accessed here:


http://www.law.utas.edu.au/reform/Projects/Human%20Rights.htm

The question of a Rights Charter for Tasmania should be a fundamental one in an era of increased discrimination and attacks upon basic liberties. It is also a great chance to find out more about human rights, and to join the fight for progressive reform to our state system.

I hope everyone can come along, details are:

Thursday the 23rd of November

6:00 - 7:30

BarCelona, Salamanca Square, Salamanca

On the 14th of November the High Court handed down their decision on the validity of the Howard Government’s WorkChoices Legislation. State Governments and Unions challenged the legislation in an attempt to protect the rights of ordinary workers, on the grounds that the constitution does not give the Commonwealth power to legislate on Industrial Relations. The majority of the High Court, five judges, determined that the legislation was valid, while two judges, Justice Ian Callinan and Justice Michael Kirby, found that the legislation was invalid.There are probably two things that I would take from this. Firstly, the decision is probably right. Keep in mind that it is not a decision about whether or not the legislation is good, or fair, or even sensible, we know it isn’t, and the High Court probably knows that too. The decision was about whether or not the constitution grants the power to make Industrial Relations laws to the States or The Commonwealth, and based on the last 80 years of Australian Law, it clearly does. The Australian Constitution has always given the Commonwealth vast powers over the states. The Hawke and Keating governments used these powers over the states to huge effect, probably most famously in the fight over the disastrous Franklin Dam proposal, which culminated in the “Dams Case” of 1983.

Secondly, we have lost the battle, but we can still win the war. The High Court’s decision means that future Labor Governments will definitely have the power to throw WorkChoices out an introduce a normal, balanced IR regime which protects rights and dignity of workers. So our reaction to the decision should not be to lick our wounds or criticize the court, our reaction should be to gather our senses, thank the court for getting it right, get active, get angry and get even. The Howard Government still might succumb to this extreme legislation; Australians will not turn away if they see the damage that the Howard agenda is doing to ordinary people. I urge everyone to join in the fight against the Howard government in the northern seats of Bass and Braddon next year, and ensure that the workplace terror of WorkChoices doesn’t become the standard regime for Australians.

Rupert Murdoch has broken with his tradition of using journo-sycophants to do his bidding, and come out to tell Australians what to think directly. In an address in Sydney this week Murdoch said that Australians have to make sure that their disdain or horror over the Iraq war does not transform into Anti-American sentiment. As usual with Murdoch, the term hypocrite just doesn’t do it justice. He was the Tubthumper-in-Chief for the war both in Australia through his media dominance and in the U.S. through his “patriotic” news service Fox Network, and now the war has gone worse-than-wrong he wants to be the objective arbiter of what everyone should think about it.

Of course, Murdoch has a point in a way. The blundering bumbling barbarism of the Iraq invasion is no reflection of the character of the U.S. population, and as the mid-term elections showed, U.S. voters are sick of the war and its accident-prone architects. But this doesn’t let Murdoch off the hook, he played a major role in engineering support for the war and needs to take his share now that the blame game has begun. Maybe if Murdoch really wants to stop Australians blaming the American people for the war, he should come out and tell them who was really responsible, introduce us to the neoconservative businessmen-politicians (the line gets blurry when you talk about U.S. Republicans) who designed the war as a bonanza of public money and oil dollars. Anti-Americanism in Australia will take a major blow when Murdoch comes clean and reveals that one of those who is really responsible for the whole fiasco is an Australian. Himself.

Hi All, Australian Young Labor are holding a retreat weekend starting on the 9th of December. The two-day retreat will be a great opportunity to learn about AYL and to develop plans, policies and recruiting strategies and to network with AYL members. The event is kindly hosted by Daniel Hulme at his Clifton Beach home. Daniel is also providing meals and accommodation. The retreat should be fantastic, those of you who are lucky enough to go will no doubt gain rewarding experience as well as having a great weekend. Anyone who would like more information can contact Labor House in Salamanca Place for a brochure or email Dan on Daniel.Hulme@bigpond.com

Disclaimer: The opinions posted on this page are from Individual members and do not necessarily represent the views of all of Australian Young Labor.

Authorised by Stuart Benson, 3/538 Nelson Road Mount Nelson 7007. Published by Tasmanian Young Labor.

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